AI enthusiasm amongst educators hasn’t evaporated, but it's not as intense as it once was, says Carl Hooker, educator and author.
The former district tech director regularly speaks to educators around the country (often during Tech & Learning regional leadership summits) and polls them on their feelings about AI. He says that while school leaders are still interested in the potential of AI, they are being more cautious about how they are spending money on AI products. They are also more concerned about AI's impact on the environment.
In many ways, this waning enthusiasm is familiar to educators from previous tech innovations. It follows the Gartner hype cycle, a graphic of how at first a new technology is embraced, then people pull away from the tool when it doesn't quite live up to the promise. Ultimately, society learns how to best make use of the new technology.
With AI, Hooker says, there was initially intense excitement. “I think we hit that peak, probably, in the summer of '24; now we're in what they call the zone of disillusionment,” he says. AI’s limitations are becoming clearer, and educators are realizing that simply throwing AI at various problems is not always an effective solution.
On top of this, financial analysts are increasingly warning of a potential AI bubble burst based on the scale of investment and theoretical limits to the return on that investment. Time Magazine recently noted that analysts predict more than $5 trillion being invested in AI by the end of the decade, a staggering number that far outpaces the AI industry’s profits. For instance, Time Magazine notes, "OpenAI and Anthropic have annualized revenues of about $25 billion and $19 billion."
AI will be a part of education going forward, but the ways schools use it and engage with it is evolving, says Hooker, who is a proponent of using AI in ways that support deep learning.
The AI Bubble: Fewer Screens and Less Screen Time
One reason some districts are focusing less on AI, Hooker suggests, is funding. “We just ran out of all of our ESSER funds a year-and-a-half ago to replace all those devices that we bought, so now we have to figure out what to do with that,” he says. “Schools are shifting away from one-to-one.”
Beyond funding realities, there is a growing effort in many states and districts to prevent students from using their phones during school time. “Cell phones have been banned in 21 states,” Hooker says. “So now you're saying we don't have money for more devices, plus you can't bring your own.”
Generative AI went mainstream at the tail end of Covid, just after most districts had invested in one-to-one devices, which allowed schools to implement the technology in ways they wouldn’t have been able to otherwise, Hooker says. “If that doesn't happen and generative AI happens, we're like, 'Oh, it's cool. The high school kids get to use it.’”
The Future of AI In Schools
The AI hype cycle reminds Hooker of previous hype cycles around other technologies.
“I've lived through a couple of different eras with Web 2.0 and then mobile devices. I was a tech director when all of those came out, and everything was the App Store, and everybody was buying apps; it was this huge explosion of everybody spending money on that,” Hooker says. “Then it went from that to software as a service, and everybody needed to get subscriptions to everything, which is kind of where we're still at."
He notes that past tech bubbles never burst, "But they definitely deflated.”
That’s what he sees happening with AI: It will remain a thing in education, just not necessarily THE thing.
“It doesn't mean there's not going to still be adaptation, because there's still lots of schools that haven't adapted it at all,” he says. “I just think the fanfare and the buzz and the hype are probably way past their peak, and we're going to eventually get to a settling point.”
What that will be like is anyone’s guess. Hooker notes the field is still discovering what AI “looks like in a highly impactful way when it comes to learning. So we're still kind of figuring that out, because we're all learning this at the same time.”
In other words, AI is here to stay in education, but the AI gold rush in education may have run its course.
